Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

PENG Yuehu  DUAN Wansuo  XIANG Jie 《大气科学进展》2011,28(6):1279-1290

Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO,and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant.This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction,which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast.  相似文献   

Nelder-Mead单纯形算法改进及在气象上的应用          下载免费PDF全文

张正秋 《应用气象学报》2011,22(5)

Nelder-Mead Simplex (NMS)算法是一种查找多元函数局地最小值的无微分算法,在现代科学计算中得到广泛应用,该文提出了一种对NMS算法的改进方法.改进后,大大简化了其计算过程,提高了该算法的收敛速度.利用改进后的算法对陆面过程参数进行了拟合计算,结果表明:改进的NMS算法对非线性公式具有非常高的拟合精度,可将其应用于气象学上非线性问题计算或非线性方程组求解.  相似文献   

半干旱沙地-草甸区水面蒸发模拟及其影响因子辨识   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

童新  刘廷玺  杨大文  段利民  吴尧  王天帅  王海燕  高肖彦 《干旱区地理》2015,38(1):10-17

在分析半干旱沙地—草甸区的水面蒸发过程及其影响因子的基础上,采用多元逐步回归分析方法,对水面蒸发的众多影响因子进行逐步筛选,找出显著影响因子,建立水面蒸发与其显著影响因子间的多元非线性回归模型,并模拟计算了彭曼蒸发公式、道尔顿水汽运输理论蒸发公式中的风函数,比较分析了彭曼模型、变异道尔顿模型、多元非线性回归模型计算的水面蒸发量。结果表明:彭曼模型、变异道尔顿模型和最终建立的多元非线性逐步回归模型所得结果十分接近,与实测水面蒸发量的趋势也很一致;除变异道尔顿模型稳定性稍差外,其余两者都具有较好的稳定性;多元非线性逐步回归方法可以找到水面蒸发的显著影响因子,剔除掉不显著影响因子,避免因子相关造成的影响,使所建回归模型具有良好的拟合效果,其决定系数达到了0.773,预测结果令人满意。  相似文献   

Wave resonances in a narrow gap between two barges using fully nonlinear numerical simulation     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

  相似文献   

基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型     

袁红春  谭明星  顾怡婷  陈新军 《海洋科学》2015,39(12):165-172

作者针对远洋渔场渔情预报精度偏低的问题,提出一种基于空间自回归和空间聚类的渔情预报模型。该模型利用空间自回归对收集到的渔业历史数据进行预处理,然后通过空间聚类将所有数据样本根据地理位置分划成若干个区域,最后研究每个区域中环境数据与渔获数据之间的数学关系,各自建立栖息地适宜性指数模型(Habitat Suitability Index,HSI),并以印度洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)为例进行验证。结果表明,本模型的均方差为0.1742,与传统线性回归方法的均方差0.2363相比,能更好地表达海洋环境数据与渔获量之间的关系,预测精度显著提高。  相似文献   

点蚀损伤下桩基式平台腿柱轴压极限承载力研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王仁华  方媛媛  窦培林  林振东 《海洋工程》2015,33(3):29-35

采用圆柱体点蚀损伤模型,建立含细观尺度点蚀损伤的桩基式平台腿柱多尺度精细化数值模型,研究壁厚损伤度、点蚀损伤强度以及点蚀体积损伤强度影响平台腿柱轴压极限承载力的规律。研究结果表明,壁厚损伤度及点蚀损伤强度明显削弱平台腿柱的极限强度,且随点蚀损伤强度增大壁厚损伤度的影响加剧;点蚀体积损伤强度由于综合考虑了壁厚损伤度和点蚀损伤强度的耦合因素,相比于独立考虑后两者,其更能合理地描述点蚀损伤对平台腿柱极限强度的影响,故点蚀体积损伤强度体现了点蚀损伤的关键特征。本方法不仅适用于研究点蚀损伤构件的极限承载力,其所提出的点蚀损伤模型的构建方法,可拓展于研究受点蚀损伤的整体平台结构的极限承载力,且确定点蚀体积损伤强度为描述点蚀损伤特征的关键参数后,有望将其用于修正点蚀损伤平台腿柱的承载力设计公式。  相似文献   

Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis of Jack-up Platforms Subjected to Monochrome and Irregular Waves     

Maziar Gholami KORZANI  Ali Akbar AGHAKOUCHAK 《海洋工程》2015,29(1):65-80

As jack-up platforms have recently been used in deeper and harsher waters, there has been an increasing demand to understand their behaviour more accurately to develop more sophisticated analysis techniques. One of the areas of significant development has been the modelling of spudcan performance, where the load-displacement behaviour of the foundation is required to be included in any numerical model of the structure. In this study, beam on nonlinear winkler foundation (BNWF) modeling—which is based on using nonlinear springs and dampers instead of a continuum soil media—is employed for this purpose. A regular monochrome design wave and an irregular wave representing a design sea state are applied to the platform as lateral loading. By using the BNWF model and assuming a granular soil under spudcans, properties such as soil nonlinear behaviour near the structure, contact phenomena at the interface of soil and spudcan (such as uplifting and rocking), and geometrical nonlinear behaviour of the structure are studied. Results of this study show that inelastic behaviour of the soil causes an increase in the lateral displacement at the hull elevation and permanent unequal settlement in soil below the spudcans, which are increased by decreasing the friction angle of the sandy soil. In fact, spudcans and the underlying soil cause a relative fixity at the platform support, which changes the dynamic response of the structure compared with the case where the structure is assumed to have a fixed support or pinned support. For simulating this behaviour without explicit modelling of soil-structure interaction (SSI), moment-rotation curves at the end of platform legs, which are dependent on foundation dimensions and soil characteristics, are obtained. These curves can be used in a simplified model of the platform for considering the relative fixity at the soil-foundation interface.  相似文献   

深海内波空间啁啾的演变研究     

孙美玲  王晶  郭凯  张旭东  孟俊敏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,45(1):114-120

根据基于两层流体推导的深海内波弱非线性薛定谔(Nonlinear Schrodinger,简称NLS)方程,引进空间啁啾的思想,研究深海区频散效应和非线性效应的作用。文中推导出了频散效应和非线性效应所致啁啾的表达式,采用数值计算方法计算了综合效应产生的总啁啾。分析了频散和非线性以及综合效应所致啁啾在深海内波传播中的演变规律。从空间啁啾的角度,解释中国南海东沙群岛附近深海区内波演变的机理。  相似文献   

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张俊  独知行  杜宁  张显云 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(1):122-125

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杨厚丽  邹彤  郭唐永  刘延飞 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(2):346-348

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